Most likely Arman Tsarukyan (40%), no event announced yet. Next: Ilia Topuria (25%), retires or vacates first (25%).
Updated (UAE time) · Percentages are NextSmash model estimates, not facts or betting advice.
Likely opponents Model estimate
-
Gaethje said himself that if and when he defends, Tsarukyan will be the opponent.
- 25%The promoter wants the rematch and Gaethje says 'of course I would'. Immediate rematches score lower on freshness.
- Retires or vacates first25%Gaethje frames his options as 'Tsarukyan or retirement'.
Field / other: 10%. This covers everyone not listed above.
- Likely event
- No event before 2027 (injured). Nothing announced.
- Last fight
- Win vs Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO R4 5:00 · UFC Freedom 250 · 14 Jun 2026
- Confidence
- Medium (High = officially booked · Medium = reported or a fighter's own claim · Low = model only)
- Last updated
- (UAE time)
Justin Gaethje: frequently asked questions
When is Justin Gaethje's next fight?
No fight is officially booked as of 1 Oct 2026. Our outlook: No event before 2027 (injured). Nothing announced.
Who did Justin Gaethje fight last?
Justin Gaethje beat Ilia Topuria at UFC Freedom 250 on 14 Jun 2026 (KO/TKO R4 5:00).
Who is Justin Gaethje likely to fight next?
NextSmash model estimate: Arman Tsarukyan (40%), Ilia Topuria (25%), retires or vacates first (25%). Updated 1 Oct 2026. These are estimates, not facts or betting advice.
What is Justin Gaethje's record?
28-5-0 (wins-losses-draws) in professional MMA, as listed on UFC.com (checked 1 Oct 2026).
Your pick
Other lightweight fighters
- Ilia Topuria #1 · next: Justin Gaethje 25%
- Arman Tsarukyan #2 · next: Justin Gaethje 40%
- Charles Oliveira #3 · next: Diego Lopes 70%
- Max Holloway #4 · next: Conor McGregor 25%
- Paddy Pimblett #5 · next: Quillan Salkilld 50%
More: Lightweight rankings and next fights · United States UFC fighters
Sources
- UFC.com athlete profile (record, rank) · 1 Oct 2026
- UFC.com rankings (Media Panel + Meta boards) · 1 Oct 2026
- MMA Junkie: Gaethje timeline, Tsarukyan · 23 Sep 2026
- Upfront MMA: Gaethje says Tsarukyan or retirement
- Upfront MMA: Gaethje open to Topuria rematch · 17 Sep 2026
- Punch Junkie: Anik says rematch under 'strong consideration'
- ESPN fight history (Topuria vs Gaethje result) · 1 Oct 2026
- ESPN fighter profile (country) · 1 Oct 2026
Percentages are NextSmash model estimates from the factors shown above (see methodology). They are not facts, and not betting advice. Records and ranks come from UFC.com; country from ESPN. Checked 1 Oct 2026.