Who's next for the lightweight title?

Champion: Justin Gaethje. Most likely next title challenger: Arman Tsarukyan (40%, model estimate).

Updated 2 Oct 2026 (UAE time) · Percentages are NextSmash model estimates, not facts or betting advice.

Lightweight rankings and next fights

Media Panel board on ufc.com, checked 1 Oct 2026 (last updated after UFC Fight Night, 26 Sep). The Meta (algorithmic) rank is shown alongside. Next re-check: after UFC 332 (3 Oct). Ranks 16–30 are unofficial: a NextSmash formula, not a UFC ranking (see About).

UFC official rankings · champion + Media panel top 15, from UFC.com
C	Justin Gaethje 28-5-0 · United States · next: Arman Tsarukyan 40%
1	Ilia Topuria 17-1-0 · Georgia · next: Justin Gaethje 25%
2	Arman Tsarukyan 24-3-0 · Armenia · next: Justin Gaethje 40%
3	Charles Oliveira 37-11-0 · Brazil · next: Diego Lopes 70%
4	Max Holloway 28-9-0 · United States · next: Conor McGregor 25%
5	Paddy Pimblett 24-4-0 · England · next: Quillan Salkilld 50%
6	Benoît Saint Denis 17-4-0 · France · next: Quillan Salkilld 15%
7	Quillan Salkilld Riser 13-1-0 · Australia · next: Paddy Pimblett 50%
8	Mauricio Ruffy 14-3-0 · Brazil · next: Benoît Saint Denis 12%
9	Salahdine Parnasse Riser 24-2-0 · France · next: Rafael Fiziev 15%
10	Mateusz Gamrot 26-5-0 · Poland · next: Rafael Fiziev 15%
11	Rafael Fiziev 14-5-0 · Azerbaijan · next: Mateusz Gamrot 15%
12	Renato Moicano 21-7-1 · Brazil · next: Tom Nolan 92%
13	Dan Hooker 24-15-0 · New Zealand · next: Brian Ortega 90%
14	Tom Nolan Riser 11-1-0 · Australia · next: Renato Moicano 92%
15	Beneil Dariush 23-8-1 · United States · next: Mateusz Gamrot 8%
NextSmash unofficial ranks 16–30 · our formula, not a UFC ranking · how it works
16	Nurullo Aliev Riser Unofficial rank 12-0-0 · Tajikistan · next: Grant Dawson 92%
17	Tommy Gantt Riser Unofficial rank 13-0-0 · United States · next: Manoel Sousa 15%
18	Manoel Sousa Riser Unofficial rank 15-1-0 · Brazil · next: Tommy Gantt 15%
19	Rongzhu Riser Unofficial rank 29-6-0 · China · next: Tommy Gantt 10%
20	MarQuel Mederos Riser Unofficial rank 12-1-1 · United States · next: Rongzhu 8%
21	Grant Dawson Unofficial rank 24-3-1 · United States · next: Nurullo Aliev 92%
22	Magomed Zaynukov Riser Unofficial rank 9-0-0 · Russia · next: Stan Dorsainvil 9%
23	Stan Dorsainvil Riser Unofficial rank 6-0-0 · Haiti · next: Magomed Zaynukov 9%
24	Tofiq Musayev Unofficial rank 24-6-0 · Azerbaijan · next: Stan Dorsainvil 8%
25	Axel Sola Unofficial rank 13-1-1 · France · next: Tofiq Musayev 8%
26	King Green Unofficial rank 36-17-1 · United States · next: Esteban Ribovics 92%
27	Mason Jones Unofficial rank 18-3-0 · Wales · next: Chris Padilla 15%
28	Chris Padilla Riser Unofficial rank 18-6-1 · United States · next: Mason Jones 15%
29	Esteban Ribovics Unofficial rank 16-3-0 · Argentina · next: King Green 92%
30	Chris Duncan Unofficial rank 15-3-0 · Scotland · next: Drew Dober 92%

Ranked in the Meta top 15 only:

Tofiq Musayev Meta #13 · Unofficial #24 here
Grant Dawson Meta #14 · Unofficial #21 here
Jalin Turner Meta #15

Booked lightweight fights

UFC 332: Silva vs Wang · Sat 3 Oct 2026 · King Green vs Esteban Ribovics, Rafael Dos Anjos vs Alexander Hernandez
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan · Sat 10 Oct 2026 · Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert, Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim
UFC Fight Night Edmonton: Buckley vs Malott · Sat 17 Oct 2026 · Kyle Nelson vs Cristian Perez Gonzalez, Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev · Sat 24 Oct 2026 · Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev
UFC Vegas 123: Moicano vs Nolan · Sat 31 Oct 2026 · Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan
UFC 334: Gane vs Hokit · Sat 14 Nov 2026 · Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan, Jim Miller vs Terrance McKinney, Nazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson Nascimento
UFC Fight Night Qatar: Procházka vs Stirling · Sat 21 Nov 2026 · Dan Hooker vs Brian Ortega

Other divisions

Flyweight · Bantamweight · Featherweight · Welterweight · Middleweight · Light Heavyweight · Heavyweight · Women's Strawweight · Women's Flyweight · Women's Bantamweight